Reg Lascaris: The future of SA wine

Reg Lascaris, the author of several works forecasting social, economic and communication trends, tries his hand at wine industry future-spotting. He draws on the inspirational example of US wine guru, Robert M Parker Jr.

 

Staring down the bottom of a wineglass is the only way to look at the future. The results are invariably rosy and your guesswork can hardly be challenged (after all,
in vino veritas).

Apparently, everyone who is anyone in the world of wine is gazing toward 2015 as though it were a World Cup year.

An American article (Parker Predicts the Future) has many people talking. It's thought-provoking stuff all right, but frankly I was surprised by one glaring omission.

American wine guru Robert M Parker Jr writes 1200-odd words, managing to include references to wine production in Piedmont, Russia, Turkey, Lebanon, Bulgaria, Romania, France, Spain, Argentina, Australia, California, India and China, nogal, without once mentioning South Africa.

To redress the balance, I have decided to attempt some future-spotting from the Rainbow Nation. There's many a slip twixt cup and lip, but here are 10 future developments we could well savour by 2015.

1 Next to beer, wine will become South Africa's beverage of choice

Wine has a long way to go, but to get up there next to beer it only has spirits, milk and Five Roses to beat. It can be done.

Think back 30 years. South Africa had a beer and braaivleis culture. A sophisticated restaurant-based dining and imbibing experience was for a select few.
Wine was for the cognoscenti.

That's changed. Wine appreciation now extends across middle- and upper-income groups. With better marketing, ongoing education and a patriotic commitment to one of our country's signature products, we can accelerate the trend to wine.

There's a crude way to get South Africans to drink more wine (bigger glasses) and there's a more subtle and sustainable method (by constant persuasion and education). The sooner our industry embraces marketing education the better.

2 We will create wine brands that take on the world

Our wine industry, it seems, only does the sensible thing after exhausting all other alternatives.

It may therefore take a few years, but ultimately we will get round to developing mega wine brands capable of generating substantial export volumes.

This implies concentration on perhaps three mainstream brands and may require the co-operation of several important industry players. But we will only make
a global breakthrough when we have strong, high profile brands capable of carrying the flag for Wine South Africa.

Australia has shown the way. Last year its Yellowtail brand (launched in the United States only three years previously) sold 7 million cases in North America. Our entire industry sold just half a million cases into this huge market.

3 There will be a consolidation crunch in the middle of the industry

Local industry consolidation is inevitable. Much bigger groups will emerge. However, they are unlikely to target small estates for acquisition. Their goal will be significant increases in scale by acquiring mid-sized industry players. Small operators will thrive by exploiting specific market niches and developing boutique brands.

4 Multinationals will stop hovering and start buying

The big global groups currently have no or low interest in South Africa. We don't feature on their radar. (That's why a global wine guru can take a worldview of wine's future and miss us entirely...)

However, as our marketing improves and bigger national entities are created so offshore interest will stir. Look out for a belated entry by the multinationals,
either through direct acquisition or partnerships with strong local players.

A window of opportunity might open the next time the dollar strengthens massively and the rand weakens significantly.

5 Sunny South Africa will warm to Spanish, French and Italian trends

South Africa has tried to make a breakthrough with our "unique" Pinotage varietal. Inroads were made in the Mandela Years when South Africa was briefly in vogue, but it was short-lived. Now, instead, smart local growers will benefit from the trend to warmer climate varietals.

The primary beneficiaries may be Spain, the south of France, Italy and Sicily, but there's no reason why we can't cash in on the developing taste for the more aromatic profile offered by Shiraz, Grenache and Mourvedre. Already we are seeing some local plantings, so if the taste for warm climate varietals reaches critical mass, we will be well placed to exploit our climatic advantages.

6 Western Cape will dominate with pockets of resistance

The Western Cape, with its Mediterranean climate, will continue to dominate the local industry landscape, but watch for subtle shifts. Long-term climate change will work for some areas and against others. Marginal areas may develop meaningful potential.

For instance, the apple growing area of Elgin is being reassessed by some for its grape-growing potential. Cooler pockets in various areas of the Cape will be investigated as weather patterns change.

7 New New World wines will be discovered

The search for favourable climatic pockets will not be restricted to South Africa. Viticulturists will investigate regions of China and India, looking for Bordeaux on the banks of the Yangtze or Stellenbosch in the foothills of the Himalayas.

Closer to home, Kenya, Zimbabwe and perhaps even Madagascar will be reinvestigated.

As global consumption grows - it's already expanding exponentially - other nations will pursue the local potential for wine production. Within 10 years, the talk won't be of New World wines, but new New World wines.

8 High priority for packaging innovation

Packaging innovation will accelerate. Some markets have only recently discovered boxed and bagged wine. The Australians have introduced wine in a can.

Locally, bottle supply has been a bugbear for years. After grapes, glass is our second largest input cost. So look out for packaging and wine-dispensing innovation. Wine from pumps and the vat has been tried in some markets. South Africa has tried returning "empties" and bottle-washing. Screwcaps will replace corks in most wine categories. Watch out for glass stoppers as well.

We'll promote wine in a jug and wine in a six-pack. In fact, Joe Six-Pack will be a wine-drinker.

9 Unoaked wine will take root

Unoaked wine is cheaper than oaked wine and quicker to produce. Huge growth is on the horizon. Wines that benefit from ageing will still be preserved in wood, but the big marketing action will be with unoaked wines; even Robert M Parker Jr says so.

10 We'll chill and relax with our wine

Wine's remaining myths and legends will wither and die. We'll chill lighter style reds in summer or plop a couple of ice cubes into the glass. The prejudice against rosé will vanish entirely. It is already being repositioned as "blush wine" and will become high fashion.

Connoisseurs may disagree with some of these predictions. But, they will have to adjust as wine becomes a mass market and wine-drinking a national pastime. It may be hard to swallow, but in South Africa that's how the boerewors rolls...

Reg Lascaris is the Africa and Middle East regional director of ad agency group TBWA Worldwide and a partner in Boekenhoutskloof winery.